US-India Trade Deal: Markets Await July 9 Tariff Decision

Investors Prepare for a Potentially Volatile Week

Investors are getting ready for a possibly volatile week. The 90-day pause on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs ends on July 9. This brings uncertainty to US-India trade relations.

Key Factors Influencing Market Sentiment

Experts say the trade talk results will greatly affect markets. This is especially true for IT, pharma, and auto sectors. These areas are sensitive to global trade.

Earlier this year, Trump added a 26% import duty on Indian goods. But he delayed it for 90 days. As the deadline nears, traders are being careful. They want to know if the tariffs will be applied, changed, or delayed again.

Important Week for Worldwide Stocks

“This week matters not just for Indian markets, but for global stocks too,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research at Religare Broking Ltd. “The big event is the US trade deadline on July 9. This could change global trade. Investors will also watch the US FOMC minutes released the same day.”

Focus on Company Earnings

Meanwhile, company earnings are also in focus. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Avenue Supermarts will start the Q1FY26 reporting season. Their results will likely set the tone for the market.

Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Financial Services, said good news on US-India trade could boost investor confidence. “Since major indices are at high levels, investors will watch for earnings growth in the Q1 results.”

Market in Consolidation Phase

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services added, “We expect the market to stay in consolidation. It’s waiting for clarity on the US-India trade deal. Stock movements will depend on Q1FY26 business updates.”

Last week, the BSE Sensex fell by 626.01 points (0.74%). The NSE Nifty dropped by 176.8 points (0.68%).

Unpredictable Foreign Investments

Foreign investments may also be unpredictable. “FII buying will depend on two things,” said V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments. “First, a trade deal between India and the US would be positive. Second, Q1 FY26 results showing earnings recovery would help. Disappointment in these areas could hurt the market.”

Tracking Important Changes

Investors will likely watch:

• Brent crude price changes
• Rupee-dollar fluctuations

These could further affect trading this week.