Monsoon Revival Expected After June 12, Says IMD

Hope for Rain After Dry Spell

Pune: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) brings good news. The southwest monsoon should pick up between June 12 and 18. This follows a pause since May 29.

Uncertainty and Hope

An IMD official shared that a weather system might form over the Bay of Bengal around June 12-13. But there’s some uncertainty. Models predict different outcomes. “Some models suggest a system forming, others do not. We’re not confident enough to include it in our forecast yet,” the official said.

Still, there’s hope. The extended-range forecast suggests the monsoon will revive during this period. It may or may not form a system. After the revival, the IMD expects good rainfall. This includes central India, parts of Maharashtra, and south peninsular India.

Key to Monsoon’s Progress

The forecast brings hope to regions facing dry spells. The monsoon’s progress has been slow over the past week. The IMD official explained, “The monsoon’s advance across other regions after the revival will depend on rainfall distribution and the establishment of monsoon winds.”

• More parts of central and east India may see the monsoon advance between June 12 and 18.
• Expect widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over south peninsular and adjoining central India.
• Overall rainfall is likely to be above normal over south peninsular India.
• Central India may see normal to above-normal rainfall.
• Northwest, east, and northeast India might experience below-normal rainfall from June 12-18.

Private Forecaster’s Prediction

Skymet Weather Services, a private forecaster, is more confident. They predict a monsoon system forming over the Bay of Bengal. “A precursor cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over the west-central Bay of Bengal by June 10. It will take another 48 hours to reorganize and consolidate,” said Skymet president G P Sharma.

According to Sharma, this system is likely to trigger weather activity along the coastline from June 11. “The weather system may track slightly south of its usual path. It will move across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and Maharashtra.” Skymet predicts the monsoon revival window to span from June 12 to 17. This should cover most of south peninsular India.